ERNIE Bot can generate text, images, and videos based on natural language inputs. It is powered by ERNIE (Enhanced Representation through Knowledge Integration), a powerful deep learning model.

The first version of ERNIE was introduced and open-sourced in 2019 by researchers at Tsinghua University to demonstrate the natural language understanding capabilities of a model that combines both text and knowledge graph data.

Later that year, Baidu released ERNIE 2.0 which became the first model model to set a score higher than 90 on the GLUE benchmark for evaluating natural language understanding systems.

In 2021, Baidu’s researchers posted a paper on ERNIE 3.0 in which they claim the model exceeds human performance on the SuperGLUE natural language benchmark. ERNIE 3.0 set a new top score on SuperGLUE and displaced efforts from Google and Microsoft.

According to Baidu’s CEO Robin Li, opening up ERNIE Bot to the public will enable the company to obtain more human feedback and improve the user experience. He said that ERNIE Bot is a showcase of the four core abilities of generative AI: understanding, generation, reasoning, and memory. He also said that ERNIE Bot can help users with various tasks such as writing, learning, entertainment, and work.

Baidu first unveiled ERNIE Bot in March this year, demonstrating its capabilities in different domains such as literature, art, and science. For example, ERNIE Bot can summarise a sci-fi novel and offer suggestions on how to continue the story in an expanded universe. It can also generate images and videos based on text inputs, such as creating a portrait of a fictional character or a scene from a movie.

Earlier this month, Baidu revealed that ERNIE Bot’s training throughput had increased three-fold since March and that it had achieved new milestones in data analysis and visualisation. ERNIE Bot can now generate results more quickly and handle image inputs as well. For instance, ERNIE Bot can analyse an image of a pie chart and generate a summary of the data in natural language.

Baidu is one of the first Chinese companies to obtain approval from authorities to release generative AI experiences to the public, according to Bloomberg. The report suggests that officials see AI as a “business and political imperative” for China and want to ensure that the technology is used in a responsible and ethical manner.

Beijing is keen on putting guardrails in place to prevent the spread of harmful or illegal content while still enabling Chinese companies to compete with overseas rivals in the field of AI.

Beijing’s AI guardrails

The “guardrails” include the rules published by the Chinese authorities in July 2023 that govern generative AI in China.

China’s rules go substantially beyond current regulations in other parts of the world and aim to ensure that generative AI is used in a responsible and ethical manner. The rules cover various aspects of generative AI, such as content, data, technology, fairness, and licensing.

One notable requirement is that operators of generative AI must ensure that their services adhere to the core values of socialism, while also avoiding content that incites subversion of state power, secession, terrorism, or any actions undermining national unity and social stability.

Generative AI services within China are also prohibited from promoting content that provokes ethnic hatred and discrimination, violence, obscenity, or false and harmful information.

Furthermore, the regulations reveal China’s interest in developing digital public goods for generative AI. The document emphasises the promotion of public training data resource platforms and the collaborative sharing of model-making hardware to enhance utilisation rates. The authorities also aim to encourage the orderly opening of public data classification and the expansion of high-quality public training data resources.

In terms of technology development, the rules stipulate that AI should be developed using secure and proven tools, including chips, software, tools, computing power, and data resources.

Intellectual property rights – an often contentious issue – must be respected when using data for model development, and the consent of individuals must be obtained before incorporating personal information. There is also a focus on improving the quality, authenticity, accuracy, objectivity, and diversity of training data.

To ensure fairness and non-discrimination, developers are required to create algorithms that do not discriminate based on factors such as ethnicity, belief, country, region, gender, age, occupation, or health. Moreover, operators of generative AI must obtain licenses for their services under most circumstances, adding a layer of regulatory oversight.

China’s rules not only have implications for domestic AI operators but also serve as a benchmark for international discussions on AI governance and ethical practices.

(Image Credit: Alpha Photo under CC BY-NC 2.0 license)

See also: OpenAI launches ChatGPT Enterprise to accelerate business operations

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This breakthrough, published in a recent paper in Nature Electronics, signifies a significant stride towards achieving high-performance AI computing while substantially conserving energy.

The traditional approach of executing deep neural networks on conventional digital computing architectures poses limitations in terms of performance and energy efficiency. These digital systems entail constant data transfer between memory and processing units, slowing down computations and reducing energy optimisation.

To tackle these challenges, IBM Research has harnessed the principles of analog AI, which emulates the way neural networks function in biological brains. This approach involves storing synaptic weights using nanoscale resistive memory devices, specifically Phase-change memory (PCM).

PCM devices alter their conductance through electrical pulses, enabling a continuum of values for synaptic weights. This analog method mitigates the need for excessive data transfer, as computations are executed directly in the memory—resulting in enhanced efficiency.

The newly introduced chip is a cutting-edge analog AI solution composed of 64 analog in-memory compute cores.

Each core integrates a crossbar array of synaptic unit cells alongside compact analog-to-digital converters, seamlessly transitioning between analog and digital domains. Furthermore, digital processing units within each core manage nonlinear neuronal activation functions and scaling operations. The chip also boasts a global digital processing unit and digital communication pathways for interconnectivity.

The research team demonstrated the chip’s prowess by achieving an accuracy of 92.81 percent on the CIFAR-10 image dataset—an unprecedented level of precision for analog AI chips.

The throughput per area, measured in Giga-operations per second (GOPS) by area, underscored its superior compute efficiency compared to previous in-memory computing chips. This innovative chip’s energy-efficient design coupled with its enhanced performance makes it a milestone achievement in the field of AI hardware.

The analog AI chip’s unique architecture and impressive capabilities lay the foundation for a future where energy-efficient AI computation is accessible across a diverse range of applications.

IBM Research’s breakthrough marks a pivotal moment that will help to catalyse advancements in AI-powered technologies for years to come.

(Image Credit: IBM Research)

See also: Azure and NVIDIA deliver next-gen GPU acceleration for AI

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The integration of Azure ND H100 v5 virtual machines (VMs) with NVIDIA H100 Tensor Core GPUs and Quantum-2 InfiniBand networking promises seamless scaling of generative AI and high-performance computing applications, all at the click of a button.

This cutting-edge collaboration comes at a pivotal moment when developers and researchers are actively exploring the potential of large language models (LLMs) and accelerated computing to unlock novel consumer and business use cases.

NVIDIA’s H100 GPU achieves supercomputing-class performance through an array of architectural innovations. These include fourth-generation Tensor Cores, a new Transformer Engine for enhanced LLM acceleration, and NVLink technology that propels inter-GPU communication to unprecedented speeds of 900GB/sec.

The integration of the NVIDIA Quantum-2 CX7 InfiniBand – boasting 3,200 Gbps cross-node bandwidth – ensures flawless performance across GPUs, even at massive scales. This capability positions the technology on par with the computational capabilities of the world’s most advanced supercomputers.

The newly introduced ND H100 v5 VMs hold immense potential for training and inferring increasingly intricate LLMs and computer vision models. These neural networks power the most complex and compute-intensive generative AI applications, spanning from question answering and code generation to audio, video, image synthesis, and speech recognition.

A standout feature of the ND H100 v5 VMs is their ability to achieve up to a 2x speedup in LLM inference, notably demonstrated by the BLOOM 175B model when compared to previous generation instances. This performance boost underscores their capacity to optimise AI applications further, fueling innovation across industries.

The synergy between NVIDIA H100 Tensor Core GPUs and Microsoft Azure empowers enterprises with unparalleled AI training and inference capabilities. This partnership also streamlines the development and deployment of production AI, bolstered by the integration of the NVIDIA AI Enterprise software suite and Azure Machine Learning for MLOps.

The combined efforts have led to groundbreaking AI performance, as validated by industry-standard MLPerf benchmarks:

The integration of the NVIDIA Omniverse platform with Azure extends the reach of this collaboration further, providing users with everything they need for industrial digitalisation and AI supercomputing.

(Image Credit: Uwe Hoh from Pixabay)

See also: Gcore partners with UbiOps and Graphcore to empower AI teams

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One of the key challenges in developing and deploying deep learning models lies in their size and computational requirements. However, Neural Magic tackles this issue head-on through a concept called compound sparsity.

Compound sparsity combines techniques such as unstructured pruning, quantisation, and distillation to significantly reduce the size of neural networks while maintaining their accuracy. 

“We have developed our own sparsity-aware runtime that leverages CPU architecture to accelerate sparse models. This approach challenges the notion that GPUs are necessary for efficient deep learning,” explains Bogunowicz.

Bogunowicz emphasised the benefits of their approach, highlighting that more compact models lead to faster deployments and can be run on ubiquitous CPU-based machines. The ability to optimise and run specified networks efficiently without relying on specialised hardware is a game-changer for machine learning practitioners, empowering them to overcome the limitations and costs associated with GPU usage.

When asked about the suitability of sparse neural networks for enterprises, Bogunowicz explained that the vast majority of companies can benefit from using sparse models.

By removing up to 90 percent of parameters without impacting accuracy, enterprises can achieve more efficient deployments. While extremely critical domains like autonomous driving or autonomous aeroplanes may require maximum accuracy and minimal sparsity, the advantages of sparse models outweigh the limitations for the majority of businesses.

Looking ahead, Bogunowicz expressed his excitement about the future of large language models (LLMs) and their applications.

“I’m particularly excited about the future of large language models LLMs. Mark Zuckerberg discussed enabling AI agents, acting as personal assistants or salespeople, on platforms like WhatsApp,” says Bogunowicz.

One example that caught his attention was a chatbot used by Khan Academy—an AI tutor that guides students to solve problems by providing hints rather than revealing solutions outright. This application demonstrates the value that LLMs can bring to the education sector, facilitating the learning process while empowering students to develop problem-solving skills.

“Our research has shown that you can optimise LLMs efficiently for CPU deployment. We have published a research paper on SparseGPT that demonstrates the removal of around 100 billion parameters using one-shot pruning without compromising model quality,” explains Bogunowicz.

“This means there may not be a need for GPU clusters in the future of AI inference. Our goal is to soon provide open-source LLMs to the community and empower enterprises to have control over their products and models, rather than relying on big tech companies.”

As for Neural Magic’s future, Bogunowicz revealed two exciting developments they will be sharing at the upcoming AI & Big Data Expo Europe.

Firstly, they will showcase their support for running AI models on edge devices, specifically x86 and ARM architectures. This expands the possibilities for AI applications in various industries.

Secondly, they will unveil their model optimisation platform, Sparsify, which enables the seamless application of state-of-the-art pruning, quantisation, and distillation algorithms through a user-friendly web app and simple API calls. Sparsify aims to accelerate inference without sacrificing accuracy, providing enterprises with an elegant and intuitive solution.

Neural Magic’s commitment to democratising machine learning infrastructure by leveraging CPUs is impressive. Their focus on compound sparsity and their upcoming advancements in edge computing demonstrate their dedication to empowering businesses and researchers alike.

As we eagerly await the developments presented at AI & Big Data Expo Europe, it’s clear that Neural Magic is poised to make a significant impact in the field of deep learning.

You can watch our full interview with Bogunowicz below:

(Photo by Google DeepMind on Unsplash)

Neural Magic is a key sponsor of this year’s AI & Big Data Expo Europe, which is being held in Amsterdam between 26-27 September 2023.

Swing by Neural Magic’s booth at stand #178 to learn more about how the company enables organisations to use compute-heavy models in a cost-efficient and scalable way.

The post Damian Bogunowicz, Neural Magic: On revolutionising deep learning with CPUs appeared first on AI News.

The meeting included discussions about new products, such as chatbots for Messenger and WhatsApp that can converse with different personas. Additionally, Meta announced new features for Instagram, including the ability to modify user photos via text prompts and create emoji stickers for messaging services.

These developments come at a crucial time for Meta, as the company has faced financial struggles and an identity crisis in recent years. Investors criticised Meta for focusing too heavily on its metaverse ambitions and not paying enough attention to AI.

Meta’s decision to focus on AI tools follows in the footsteps of its competitors, including Google, Microsoft, and Snapchat, who have received significant investor attention for their generative AI products. Unlike the aforementioned rivals, Meta is yet to release any consumer-facing generative AI products.

To address this gap, Meta has been reorganising its AI divisions and investing heavily in infrastructure to support its AI product needs.

Zuckerberg expressed optimism during the company meeting, stating that advancements in generative AI have made it possible to integrate the technology into “every single one” of Meta’s products. This signifies Meta’s intention to leverage AI across its platforms, including Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp.

In addition to consumer-facing tools, Meta also announced a productivity assistant called Metamate for its employees. This assistant is designed to answer queries and perform tasks based on internal company information.

Meta is also exploring open-source models, allowing users to build their own AI-powered chatbots and technologies. However, critics and competitors have raised concerns about the potential misuse of these tools, as they can be utilised to spread misinformation and hate speech on a larger scale.

Zuckerberg addressed these concerns during the meeting, emphasising the value of democratising access to AI. He expressed hope that users would be able to develop AI programs independently in the future, without relying on frameworks provided by a few large technology companies.

Despite the increased focus on AI, Zuckerberg reassured employees that Meta would not be abandoning its plans for the metaverse, indicating that both AI and the metaverse would remain key areas of focus for the company.

The success of these endeavours will determine whether Meta can catch up with its competitors and solidify its position among tech leaders in the rapidly-evolving landscape.

(Photo by Mariia Shalabaieva on Unsplash)

Related: Meta’s open-source speech AI models support over 1,100 languages

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The decision comes after meetings between Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, US President Joe Biden, Congress, and business leaders.

“AI has an incredible potential to transform our lives for the better. But we need to make sure it is developed and used in a way that is safe and secure,” explained Sunak.

“No one country can do this alone. This is going to take a global effort. But with our vast expertise and commitment to an open, democratic international system, the UK will stand together with our allies to lead the way.”

The UK government believes that the country is the natural place to lead discussions due to hosting Europe’s largest AI industry, which is only behind the US and China on the world stage. 

The AI industry in the UK employs over 50,000 people and contributes more than £3.7 billion to the country’s economy. US tech giant Palantir announced today it will make the UK its new European HQ for AI development.

“We are proud to extend our partnership with the United Kingdom, where we employ nearly a quarter of our global workforce,” said Alexander C. Karp, CEO of Palantir.

“London is a magnet for the best software engineering talent in the world, and it is the natural choice as the hub for our European efforts to develop the most effective and ethical artificial intelligence software solutions available.”

The urgency to evaluate AI risks stems from increasing concerns about the potential existential threats posed by this technology. Earlier this week, an AI task force adviser to the UK prime minister issued a stark warning: AI will threaten humans in two years.

McKinsey, a global consulting firm, predicts that between 2016 and 2030, AI-related advancements could impact approximately 15 percent of the global workforce, potentially displacing 400 million workers worldwide. In response, global regulators are racing to establish new rules and regulations to mitigate these risks.

“The Global Summit on AI Safety will play a critical role in bringing together government, industry, academia and civil society, and we’re looking forward to working closely with the UK Government to help make these efforts a success,” said Demis Hassabis, CEO of UK-headquartered Google DeepMind.

The attendees of the upcoming summit have not been announced yet, but the UK government plans to bring together key countries, leading tech companies, and researchers to establish safety measures for AI.

Prime Minister Sunak aims to ensure that AI is developed and utilised in a manner that is safe and secure while maximising its potential to benefit humanity.

Sridhar Iyengar, MD of Zoho Europe, commented:

“Earlier this year, the whitepaper released in the UK highlighted the numerous advantages of artificial intelligence, emphasising its potential as a valuable tool for enhancing business operations.

With the government’s ongoing ambition to position the UK as a science and technology superpower by 2030, and coupled with Chancellor Jeremy Hunt reiterating his vision of making the UK the ‘next Silicon Valley’, the UK’s leading input here could be extremely helpful in achieving these goals.”

Iyengar emphasised the advantages of AI and its potential to enhance various aspects of business operations, from customer service to fraud detection, ultimately improving business efficiencies.

However, Iyengar stressed the need for a global regulatory framework supported by public trust to fully harness the power of AI and achieve optimal outcomes for all stakeholders.

The European Union is already working on an Artificial Intelligence Act but it could take up to two-and-a-half years to come into effect. China, meanwhile, has also started drafting AI regulations, including proposals to require companies to notify users when an AI algorithm is being used.

These ongoing efforts highlight the global recognition of the need for comprehensive regulations and guidelines to manage AI’s impact effectively.

“To fully harness the power of AI and ensure optimal outcomes for all stakeholders, a global regulatory framework supported by public trust is essential,” added Iyengar.

“As AI becomes increasingly integrated into our daily lives, adopting a unified approach to regulations becomes crucial.”

The UK’s decision to host a global AI safety measure summit demonstrates its commitment to proactively addressing the risks associated with AI. As the world grapples with the challenges posed by AI, global cooperation and unified regulatory approaches will be vital to shaping the future of this transformative technology.

(Image Credit: No 10 Downing Street)

Related: AI leaders warn about ‘risk of extinction’ in open letter

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“The AI Act will define how the world regulates AI and we need to get it right, for developers and the open-source community,” said Dohmke.

Dohmke was born and grew up in Germany but now lives in the US. As such, he is all too aware of the widespread belief that the EU cannot lead when it comes to tech innovation.

“As a European, I love seeing how open-source AI innovations are beginning to break the narrative that only the US and China can lead on tech innovation.”

“I’ll be honest, as a European living in the United States, this is a pervasive – and often true – narrative. But this can change. And it’s already beginning to, thanks to open-source developers.”

AI will revolutionise just about every aspect of our lives. Regulation is vital to minimise the risks associated with AI while allowing the benefits to flourish.

“Together, OSS (Open Source Software) developers will use AI to help make our lives better. I have no doubt that OSS developers will help build AI innovations that empower those with disabilities, help us solve climate change, and save lives.”

A risk of overregulation is that it drives innovation elsewhere. Startups are more likely to establish themselves in countries like the US and China where they’re likely not subject to as strict regulations. Europe will find itself falling behind and having less influence on the global stage when it comes to AI.

“The AI Act is so crucial. This policy could well set the precedent for how the world regulates AI. It is foundationally important. Important for European technological leadership, and the future of the European economy itself. The AI Act must be fair and balanced for the open-source community.

“Policymakers should help us get there. The AI Act can foster democratised innovation and solidify Europe’s leadership in open, values-based artificial intelligence. That is why I believe that open-source developers should be exempt from the AI Act.”

In expanding on his belief that open-source developers should be exempt, Dohmke explains that the compliance burden should fall on those shipping products.

“OSS developers are often volunteers. Many are working two jobs. They are scientists, doctors, academics, professors, and university students alike. They don’t usually stand to profit from their contributions—and they certainly don’t have big budgets and compliance departments!”

EU lawmakers are hoping to agree on draft AI rules next month with the aim of winning the acceptance of member states by the end of the year.

“Open-source is forming the foundation of AI innovation in Europe. The US and China don’t have to win it all. Let’s break that narrative apart!

“Let’s give the open-source community the daylight and the clarity to grow their ideas and build them for the rest of the world! And by doing so, let’s give Europe the chance to be a leader in this new age of AI.”

GitHub’s policy paper on the AI Act can be found here.

(Image Credit: Collision Conf under CC BY 2.0 license)

Relevant: US and EU agree to collaborate on improving lives with AI

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The now infamous GPT-3 is a powerful autoregressive language model that uses deep learning to produce human-like text.

Eric Schwitzgebel, Anna Strasser, and Matthew Crosby set out to find out whether GPT-3 can replicate a human philosopher.

The team “fine-tuned” GPT-3 based on philosopher Daniel Dennet’s corpus. Ten philosophical questions were then posed to both the real Dennet and GPT-3 to see whether the AI could match its renowned human counterpart.

25 philosophical experts, 98 online research participants, and 302 readers of The Splintered Mind blog were tasked with distinguishing GPT-3’s answers from Dennett’s. The results were released earlier this week.

Naturally, the philosophical experts that were familiar with Dennett’s work performed the best.

“Anna and I hypothesized that experts would get on average at least 80% correct – eight out of ten,” explained Schwitzgebel.

In reality, the experts got an average of 5.1 out of 10 correct—so only just over half.

The question that tripped experts up the most was:

“Could we ever build a robot that has beliefs? What would it take? Is there an important difference between entities, like a chess-playing machine, to whom we can ascribe beliefs and desires as convenient fictions and human beings who appear to have beliefs and desires in some more substantial sense?”

Blog readers managed to get impressively close to the experts, on average guessing 4.8 out of 10 correctly. However, it’s worth noting that the blog readers aren’t exactly novices—57% have graduate degrees in philosophy and 64% had already read over 100 pages of Dennett’s work.

Perhaps a more accurate reflection of the wider population is the online research participants.

The online research participants “performed barely better than chance” with an average of just 1.2 out of 5 questions identified correctly.

(Credit: Eric Schwitzgebel)

So there we have it, GPT-3 is already able to convince most people – including experts in around half or more cases – that it’s a human philosopher.

“We might be approaching a future in which machine outputs are sufficiently humanlike that ordinary people start to attribute real sentience to machines,” theorises Schwitzgebel.

Related: Google places engineer on leave after claim LaMDA is ‘sentient’

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With a bit of fine-tuning, the AI research and deployment company is confident that its model can learn to craft diamond tools, a task that usually takes proficient humans over 20 minutes (24,000 actions). Its model uses the native human interface of keypresses and mouse movements, making it quite general, and represents a step towards general computer-using agents.

A spokesperson for the Microsoft-backed firm said: “The internet contains an enormous amount of publicly available videos that we can learn from. You can watch a person make a gorgeous presentation, a digital artist draw a beautiful sunset, and a Minecraft player build an intricate house. However, these videos only provide a record of what happened but not precisely how it was achieved, i.e. you will not know the exact sequence of mouse movements and keys pressed.

“If we would like to build large-scale foundation models in these domains as we’ve done in language with GPT, this lack of action labels poses a new challenge not present in the language domain, where “action labels” are simply the next words in a sentence.”

In order to utilise the wealth of unlabeled video data available on the internet, Open AI introduces a novel, yet simple, semi-supervised imitation learning method: Video PreTraining (VPT). The team begin by gathering a small dataset from contractors where it records not only their video, but also the actions they took, which in its case are keypresses and mouse movements. With this data the company can train an inverse dynamics model (IDM), which predicts the action being taken at each step in the video. Importantly, the IDM can use past and future information to guess the action at each step.

The spokesperson added: “This task is much easier and thus requires far less data than the behavioral cloning task of predicting actions given past video frames only, which requires inferring what the person wants to do and how to accomplish it. We can then use the trained IDM to label a much larger dataset of online videos and learn to act via behavioral cloning.”

VPT paves the path toward allowing agents to learn to act by watching the vast numbers of videos on the internet, according to Open AI.

The spokesperson said: “Compared to generative video modeling or contrastive methods that would only yield representational priors, VPT offers the exciting possibility of directly learning large scale behavioral priors in more domains than just language. While we only experiment in Minecraft, the game is very open-ended and the native human interface (mouse and keyboard) is very generic, so we believe our results bode well for other similar domains, e.g. computer usage.”

Want to learn more about AI and big data from industry leaders? Check out AI & Big Data Expo taking place in Amsterdam, California, and London.

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Marcus founded RobustAI and Geometric Intelligence (acquired by Uber), is the Professor Emeritus of Psychology and Neural Science at NYU, and authored Rebooting.AI. His views on AGI are worth listening to.

AGI is the kind of artificial intelligence depicted in movies like Space Odyssey (‘HAL’) and Iron Man (‘J.A.R.V.I.S’). Unlike current AIs that are trained for a specific task, AGIs are more like the human brain and can learn how to do tasks.

Most experts believe AGI will take decades to achieve, while some even think it will never be possible. In a survey of leading experts in the field, the average estimate was there is a 50 percent chance AGI will be developed by 2099.

Elon Musk is far more optimistic:

2029 feels like a pivotal year. I’d be surprised if we don’t have AGI by then. Hopefully, people on Mars too.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 30, 2022

Musk’s tweet received a response from Marcus in which he challenged the SpaceX and Tesla founder to a $100,000 bet that he’s wrong about the timing of AGI.

AI expert Melanie Mitchell from the Santa Fe Institute suggested the bets are placed on longbets.org. Marcus says he’s up for the bet on the platform – where the loser donates the money to a philanthropic effort – but he’s yet to receive a response from Musk.

In a post on his Substack, Marcus explained why he’s calling Musk out on his prediction.

“Your track record on betting on precise timelines for things is, well, spotty,” wrote Marcus. “You said, for instance in 2015, that (truly) self-driving cars were two years away; you’ve pretty much said the same thing every year since. It still hasn’t happened.”

Marcus argues that pronouncements like Musk is famous for can be dangerous and take attention away from the kind of questions that first need answering. 

“People are very excited about the big data and what it’s giving them right now, but I’m not sure it’s taking us closer to the deeper questions in artificial intelligence, like how we understand language or how we reason about the world,” said Marcus in 2016 in an Edge.org interview.

An incident in April, where a Tesla on Autopilot crashed into a $3 million private jet in a mostly empty airport, is pointed to as an example of why the focus needs to be on solving serious issues with AI systems before rushing to AGI:

“It’s easy to convince yourself that AI problems are much easier than they are actually are, because of the long tail problem,” argues Marcus.

“For everyday stuff, we get tons and tons of data that current techniques readily handle, leading to a misleading impression; for rare events, we get very little data, and current techniques struggle there.”

Marcus says that he can guarantee Musk won’t be shipping fully-autonomous ‘Level 5’ cars this year or next, despite what Musk said at TED2022. Unexpected outlier circumstances, like the appearance of a private jet in the way of a car, will continue to pose a problem to AI for the foreseeable future.

“Seven years is a long time, but the field is going to need to invest in other ideas if we are going to get to AGI before the end of the decade,” explains Marcus. “Or else outliers alone might be enough to keep us from getting there.”

Marcus believes outliers aren’t an unsolvable problem, but there’s currently no known solution. Making any predictions about AGI being achievable by the end of the decade before that issue is anywhere near solved is premature.

Along those same lines, Marcus points at how deep learning is “pretty decent” at recognising objects is but nowhere near as adept at human brain-like activities such as planning, reading, or language comprehension.

Here’s a pie chart used by Marcus of the kind of things that an AGI would need to achieve:

Marcus points out that he’s been using the chart for around five years and the situation has barely changed, we “still don’t have anything like stable or trustworthy solutions for common sense, reasoning, language, or analogy.”

Tesla is currently building a robot that claims to be able to perform mundane tasks around the home. Marcus is sceptical given the problems that Tesla is having with its cars on the roads.

“The AGI that you would need for a general-purpose domestic robot (where every home is different, and each poses its own safety risks) is way beyond what you would need for a car that drives on roads that are more or less engineered the same way from one town to the next,” he reasons.

Because AGI is still a somewhat vague term that’s open to interpretation, Marcus makes his own five predictions that AI will not be able to do by Musk’s 2029 prediction that AGI will be achieved:

Well then, Musk—do you accept Marcus’ challenge? Can’t say I would, even if I had anywhere near Musk’s disposable income.

(Photo by Kenny Eliason on Unsplash)

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