The research, funded by the Nuffield Foundation, explores the nuanced impacts of AI adoption on jobs and work quality. Contrary to the doomsday predictions, the report suggests that AI could have a positive influence on employment and job quality.

The study, conducted by the Institute for the Future of Work (IFOW), indicates that AI adoption is already well underway in UK firms. However, rather than leading to widespread job loss, it suggests that AI has the potential to create more jobs and improve the quality of existing ones.

Anna Thomas, Co-Founder and Director of the IFOW, expressed optimism about the study’s results: “This report not only highlights that the adoption of AI is well underway across UK firms but that it is possible for this tech transformation to lead to both net job creation and more ‘good work’ – great news as we look to solve the UK’s productivity puzzle.”

“With the [UK-hosted global] AI Summit fast approaching, Government must act urgently to regulate, legislate and invest so that UK firms and workers can benefit from this fast-moving technology.”

One key takeaway from the study is the importance of regional investment in education and infrastructure to make all areas of the UK ‘innovation ready.’ The study also emphasises the need for firms to engage workers when investing in automation and AI.

Taking these suggested actions could help ensure that the benefits of AI are distributed more evenly across regions and demographics, reducing existing inequalities.

Professor Sir Christopher Pissarides, Nobel Laureate and Co-Founder of IFOW, stressed the significance of placing “good jobs” at the heart of an economic and industrial strategy in the age of automation. He believes that the study provides valuable insights into how this can be achieved.

The IFOW’s study suggests that with the right approach, AI adoption can lead to a positive transformation of the labour market. By investing in education, infrastructure, and worker engagement, the UK can harness the potential of AI to create more jobs and improve job quality across the country.

Matt Robinson, Head of Nations and Regions, techUK, commented: “Realising the benefits of technologies like AI for all will mean getting the right foundations in place across areas like digital infrastructure and skills provision in every part of the UK to enable and create high-quality digital jobs.

“Access to good digital infrastructure, as well as skills and talent, is a priority for techUK members, and the Institute’s work provides welcome insights into their importance for creating good work throughout the country.”

While the IFOW’s study paints a more positive outlook on the adoption of AI than most headlines, it will be an uphill battle to convince the wider public.

A poll of US adults released this week by Mitre-Harris found the majority (54%) believe the risks of AI and just 39 percent of adults said they believed today’s AI technologies are safe and secure — down nine points from the previous survey.

As the AI industry continues to evolve, urgent action from governments, employers, and employees is essential to realise the opportunities, manage the risks, and convince a wary public of the technology’s benefits.

A copy of the full working paper can be found here (PDF)

(Photo by Damian Zaleski on Unsplash)

See also: CMA sets out principles for responsible AI development 

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The ongoing skills shortage is making it difficult for businesses to attract, and retain, tech industry talent. AI expertise is particularly in-demand.

Among the sectors that have seen the biggest increase on Fiverr’s platform include ‘Accounting and Finance’ services, which has seen an 835 percent increase over the past six months—showing a clear demand for AI and machine learning technologies that can help businesses streamline their financial processes and optimise operations.

The report also highlighted the growing trend for AI in creative industries, with AI art seeing a 6,223 percent increase in searches in the UK over the past six months. This suggests that businesses are increasingly exploring the use of AI technologies to create new and innovative products in the creative sector.

Bukki Adedapo, UK Country Manager at Fiverr, said:

“The services that are trending on the Fiverr platform are indicative of society’s rapidly increasing awareness and adoption of AI on a wider scale, following the launch of a number of generative AI tools to varied success.

What may be a little more surprising is the suggestion that UK businesses are actually being founded more now during a time of global economic turbulence than before. Having said this, often recessions and times of dramatic global shifts present new opportunities for businesses to prosper.

In the last 6 months, businesses and freelancers have certainly been tested, but we’re delighted that Fiverr is helping them to overcome the odds.”

Despite the economic challenges caused by the pandemic, a large number of businesses are still being founded in the UK.

Fiverr’s data suggests that there has been a significant uptick in Business Naming services (+51%) and Website Development (+92%) over the past six months, indicating that UK businesses are continuing to back themselves to thrive during the economic downturn.

Overall, the latest Business Trends Index shows that businesses and freelancers are adapting to the challenges of the pandemic, with many looking to technology to help them navigate the changing landscape.

The rise in demand for AI services highlights the growing recognition of the benefits that these technologies can offer, from automating mundane tasks to improving decision-making processes.

Alexia Pedersen, VP of EMEA at O’Reilly, commented:

“As the demand for jobs increases, so will the need for digital skills in order to meet the growing demand. However, our research shows that demand for digitally skilled workers in the UK is outgrowing the level of digital skills available. 

To minimise the growing skills gap, organisations must invest in creating a highly skilled workforce to meet the growing availability of staff. At the same time, employees should prioritise L&D to make themselves an invaluable asset to their company – proactively identifying training opportunities with a quality L&D partner, particularly one that aligns with their unique learning style and objectives.

While there is no cookie-cutter approach to upskilling, individuals should be granted access to a range of learning opportunities as part of a defined path of individual development and wider organisational culture of personal development.”  

As the world continues to evolve, businesses that are quick to embrace AI and other emerging technologies are likely to be best positioned for success in the years ahead.

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Despite recent high-profile layoffs, the wider talent shortage is ongoing. Organisations looking to attract, or retain, the best candidates are offering numerous unique benefits.

However, research from BenchSci finds that AI, machine learning, and data professionals are mostly looking for flexibility and stability in their future career.

Vanessa Ribreau, Chief People Officer at BenchSci, said:

“While the global economy continues to face challenges and instability, competition for tech talent is not slowing down.

This research, conducted with one of the most sought-after groups in terms of tech talent, clearly shows that well-recognised names and generous salaries are no longer enough to entice the brightest talent.”

Here are the top five priorities of talent when choosing an employer: 

• Flexibility (e.g. Flexible hours, unlimited vacation days)
• Chance for progression
• Remuneration
• Stability
• Challenge

Among the areas that professionals value less – but are often focused on by employers – include whether the organisation is doing good in the world and has environmentally-sustainable practices, and benefits such as healthcare plans.

“Talent are willing to invest their personal capital in the form of time, energy, and labour for the right company, but only for a healthy return on their investment. Career progression and personal development are a must,” adds Ribreau.

“The companies that will stay ahead are the ones who think of their employees as key stakeholders, not a means to an end.”

When assessing stability, the top aspects that respondents look for in an employer are their plans for long-term growth (46%) and strong profit margins (43%).

Elizabeth Hanson, Director of Engineering, Data Delivery at BenchSci, commented:

“Despite widespread murmurings of employees being flighty, perhaps as a result of the pandemic and the current recessionary environment, the data firmly shows that the AI workforce is still thinking long-term.

Engineers specifically are looking for companies where they can invest their time, energy, and expertise in return for growth opportunities – both financial and developmental. This is the trend I’ve seen while hiring and searching for roles myself. 

Workplaces that meet these needs will not only attract the best talent, but retain them too.”

You can find a full copy of BenchSci’s whitepaper here.

(Photo by Hunters Race on Unsplash)

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The data, retrieved by the Parliament Street think tank, shows that DCMS has spent an estimated £20,606,100 on data scientist and data analyst roles between 2017 and 2021.

Niall Crosby, CEO of AG Grid, commented:

“Today’s digital world creates a lot of data, and the ability to process, understand, and make decisions based on this data is very important.

Investing in data analytics will enable the Department of Culture, Media and Sport to operate more efficiently.

I am delighted to see the investment the government is making in this area.”

Last year saw record investment in data scientist/analyst roles. Around £7,383,000 was spent by DCMS in 2021 on bolstering its talent; a 75 percent increase over 2020 when an estimated £4,213,800 was spent.

Here’s the full breakdown:

As of 2021, DCMS employs around 150 full-time staff relating to data science.

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A large number of vacancies across many sectors of the jobs market are leading employers to offer higher salaries to attract and retain staff. With inflation expected to hit five percent next year, workers are simultaneously looking for pay increases to keep pace with the cost of living.

Adrian Smith, Senior Director of Operations at Randstad UK, said:

“Since February, employers have started having to put the pedal to the metal when it comes to starting salaries.

When it comes to the best data scientists in London, we will be seeing six-figure sums offered to new joiners by spring of 2022—that’s despite London-weighting losing some of its power, as more people choose to work remotely.

Organisations simply have no choice, the jobs market is burning white hot. Organisations are offering large signing-on bonuses, employees are asking for raises three months after they join, and headhunters are cornering hot recruits before they’ve even settled behind their desks.

Companies are scrambling to hire and retain the people they need and talented data scientists are critical to the performance of the team of any director of data science.”

The average UK salary for a data scientist in February 2020 was £47,600. Over the pandemic, that only increased marginally to £47,800. With the worst of the pandemic now (hopefully) behind us, many employees are in for bigger paydays.

By April 2022, the average salary for a data scientist is forecast to hit £68,100.

“As a result, any head of data or director of data who isn’t paying top dollar is going to end up weakening their talent pool. They’ll soon discover that without the best people, their data team is an empty shell,” commented Smith.

“Even if they recognise the benefits of strengthening their data team’s talent pool,  they’ll need to start thinking and acting differently if they’re going to win the war for talent.”

Other sectors – including high flyers in banks, insurers, and professional services within London’s financial services sector – are expected to see even bigger growth, with the base salaries of “A-players” set to break the £100,000 barrier over the same period.

“Venerable bastions of data talent – such as investment banks and consulting firms – are losing talent to tech start-ups,” added Smith. “The war for talent has reemerged from the ashes of the pandemic and will continue to reshape the workplace for the next decade.”

Bonuses for workers in the UK’s tech sector are also on the increase. The forecast for an individual’s bonus is 25 percent higher than last year.

“Base salary is not the whole story. Overall, data scientists are expecting another four percent in bonuses as well. In the capital, that could represent a juicy four grand for the best and the brightest,” concludes Smith.

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Within three months of investment in automation technologies, UK companies saw an average increase of five percent – or £14 billion – per month.

The impact on US businesses was even higher. Over the same three-month period, US companies witnessed an average year-on-year increase in revenue of seven percent—equivalent to an extra $195 billion per month.

Unsurprisingly, businesses that invested more heavily in automation displayed more resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic.

If the US entered the pandemic with similar levels of automation as Singapore, the report suggests the country could have reduced its GDP contraction by $105-212 billion.

The UK, meanwhile, could have prevented its 2020 GDP contraction by around £10-14 billion if it matched the automation levels of the US.

“Our new research confirms a significant positive relationship between automation and economic resilience,” said Josie Dent, Managing Economist at CEBR.

“The adoption of automation, spurred on by the recent pandemic, has helped organisations shield themselves from disruption and quickly position themselves for accelerated growth.”

Rather than destroy jobs, as some fear, automation is boosting employment.

US companies saw an average annual increase in employment of seven percent – equivalent to 7.2 million jobs – within three months of adopting automation technologies.

Over the same period, UK counterparts created an average increase of four percent in jobs—equivalent to around 676,000 roles.

The report suggests that automation has the potential to boost productivity in the UK by 15 percent in the long-term. The healthcare, social work, and transportation industries were noted as particularly benefiting from automation.

“Automation has also led to job creation and greater worker productivity, a significant contrast to the economic picture seen in the period following the global financial crisis,” explained Dent.

The pandemic and clear benefits of automation have driven more businesses than ever to invest in relevant technologies.

In the US, companies spent an average of 13 percent of their annual revenue (amounting to $4.4 trillion) on automation-related technologies. In the UK, companies spent an average of 8 percent of their revenue, or £268 billion in total.

“This first of its kind report from Cebr demonstrates the power of automation to help businesses navigate widespread disruption, and shows how it can be used as a tool to accelerate growth in a post-pandemic age,” said Gaurav Dhillon, CEO at SnapLogic. 

“Businesses today need to equip themselves with enterprise automation technologies that will allow them to quickly adapt and execute business strategies in a rapidly-changing world.”

(Photo by Konstantin Evdokimov on Unsplash)

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Faethm’s mission is to prepare the world “for the future of work” by using an AI engine – trained on billions of workforce data points – to predict what jobs need reskilling versus upskilling.

James McLeod, VP of the EMEA region at Faethm, said

“Employers and employees alike need to change their perspective. The future of work is already here and the introduction of technology does not affect work in a uniform way.

We must acknowledge where it supplements existing work and invest in a targeted reskilling approach that recognises the new roles technology is creating and ensures human and machine labour complement one another.

Doing so will not only help businesses add capacity and increase productivity, but also ensure they are looking after employees—making financially beneficial and morally responsible decisions and creating a digitally-adept workforce for the future.”

In its latest UK Workforce Forecast report (registration required), Faethm expects 4.8 percent of work – equivalent to 1.4 million full-time roles – to be automated over the next 12 months. A further 2.9 percent is predicted to be augmented by AI.

Adjusted for population, Wales (5.3%), Northern Ireland (5.2%), and the North of England (5.1%) have the highest proportions of jobs at risk of automation.

Nan Craig, Data Analyst at Faethm, commented:

“Even ordinary downturns tend to increase automation, as companies are tempted to replace expensive labour with cheaper automated systems. However, the new conditions created by COVID-19 – and the need to reduce human interaction in public places – are making automation more attractive than in an ordinary recession. 

In-person human labour is becoming more expensive, due to safety considerations around space, PPE, and the ability to take time off to self-isolate, whereas machines and automated systems, in comparison, can be added without increasing infection risks, at a comparatively lower cost.

Longer-term changes in consumer behaviour could make a difference too, as more interactions shift online, meaning businesses are more likely to be considering automation than without the COVID-19 crisis.”

Jobs in the wholesale, retail, and financial sectors are most at-risk. These sectors represent nine percent of the workforce – around five million people – and Faethm estimates that the equivalent of 932,000 full-time roles in these sectors could be automated.

Faethm’s research finds that many staple UK jobs are at risk from automation and may cease to exist in the future. However, around 382,000 jobs could be created by the introduction of new technologies.

As the country rebuilds from the pandemic, Faethm wants to see a focus on where AI can augment human jobs rather than replace them. Automation can handle more of the routine, mundane, and less enjoyable daily tasks while humans can focus on areas machines struggle with such as creativity, compassion, and interpersonal skills.

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Thus far in modern British history, there have been three industrial revolutions. The first, in the late 18th and early 19th centuries, is synonymous with the onset of coal and steam power and the widespread economic migration of the workforce from the countryside to the city in pursuit of jobs. The second witnessed the widespread adoption of electric power and steel to facilitate mass production. And the most recent of the three, the third industrial revolution, brought with it the power of the internet and the socio-economic repercussions of rapid globalisation at the turn of the 21^st century.

Each of these defining periods in our history was marked by technological upheaval and huge societal change, and they are all defined as revolutions because they shared a common characteristic: they accelerated the rise and fall of demand for specific skills. So as we return our thoughts to the present, it quickly becomes clear to us that the modern era shares these very characteristics. Only this time, it’s the increasing influence of AI/automation and the decentralisation of labour that is pushing the world toward what is now commonly known as the fourth industrial revolution. 

Despite the obvious parallels with the past, one thing about industrial revolutions has changed. Over the past 100 years or more, the length of these cycles has dropped from decades to a matter of years. Today this is creating one of the biggest employability challenges for businesses and individuals alike moving forward, as they both seek to ensure they are attuned to the demands of today’s work. 

Companies must fundamentally change the way they view skills, training and career development so they are positioned to maximise the opportunity presented by this change. This isn’t just another story about technology creating as many jobs as it invalidates: they must consider how existing roles will evolve and how people in at-risk jobs can transition into roles where they work alongside technology and continue to add value on top of it.

Re-envisaging education

For almost half a century, it has made sense for careers to follow a linear path. From early to later education, skills are gradually narrowed down and refined to serve a particular niche, with a particular job role serving as the end objective. The reason this particular ‘pyramid’ style of education has worked is because it could be mapped out to longer cycles in the demand for specific roles, which may have lasted for a generation or more. 

Today, the demand for – and turnover of – skills is cycling faster than ever before and will continue accelerating in the years ahead. This not only poses a problem for linear structures of education and career development but, on an individual level, challenges the long-held association between our jobs and our identities. Jobs give us purpose, and job roles provide a pathway for us to achieve that purpose. So what happens when skills fall out of demand, and we fall short of fulfilling that very purpose? 

The evolution of professional identity

In their indispensable guidebook, The Adaptation Advantage, Heather E. McGowan and Chris Shipley take on this topic head-on. The authors describe how identities typically carry a permanent professional stamp, i.e., ‘teacher’, ‘plumber’ or ‘politician’. This, they argue, “is the barrier to making the crossing from the past of work to the future of work. But cross we must because the future is coming at us faster than we can understand it.” 

The first step toward overcoming this barrier is to direct our educational and professional development away from specific roles and instead focus our efforts on improving our overall adaptability. Of course, each role will have a set of transferable and non-transferable skills, but there is little precedent today for knowing which is which. Identifying skills which sit across different roles means employees can more easily move laterally into new roles as and when it is necessary for them to do so. 

Socially responsible employers, not just employees

Adaptability may be perceived as an attribute that employees must possess but, in reality, it’s an attribute that is equally (if not more) essential for employers. Having the right skilled employees working in-house will still contribute significantly to a company’s competitiveness, but keeping abreast of demand for new skills by constantly hiring new talent is both a costly and unsustainable strategy. Instead, companies must look inward to retain, retrain and redeploy existing employees in those in-demand roles. 

An effective method of identifying which employees should be reskilled is by creating an inventory of skills, taking into account those which are most valuable and those which sit across multiple roles. This not only effectively eliminates the unpleasant nature and cost of employee redundancies, but by looking at how individual processes translate to value, helps companies eliminate bloated processes and release capacity, simultaneously making roles both more relevant and more efficient. 

Adapting our understanding of ‘work’

Change can often be met with resistance, particularly during periods of uncertainty. But we cannot sit back in our comfortable status quo position when we know that doing so could block the path to a more prosperous future. 

We should instead focus on enhancing a very different human instinct – adaptation – to move forward. It is a constant trait of humankind that allows us to thrive and remain resilient, even in the event of sudden changes in the environment. 

Employers and employees alike must revise their understanding of what a ‘job’ entails, and prioritise both enhancing and encouraging adaptability. Reskilling is essential to realise the immense potential of the future of work. All it requires is a willingness to do things differently.

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There is still fierce debate about the impact that artificial intelligence will have on jobs. Some believe that AI will replace many jobs and lead to the requirement of a Universal Basic Income (UBI), while others claim it will primarily offer assistance to help workers be more productive.

Dorsey is a respected technologist with a deep understanding of emerging technologies. Aside from creating Twitter, he also founded Square which is currently pushing the mass adoption of blockchain-based digital currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Yang was seen as the presidential candidate for technologists before he suspended his campaign in February, with The New York Times calling him “The Internet’s Favorite Candidate” and his campaign was noted for its “tech-friendly” nature. The entrepreneur, lawyer, and philanthropist founded Venture for America, a non-profit which aimed to create jobs in cities most affected by the Great Recession. In March, Yang announced the creation of the Humanity Forward non-profit which is dedicated to promoting the ideas during his presidential campaign.

Jobs are now very much at threat once again; with the coronavirus wiping out all job gains since the Great Recession over a period of just four weeks. If emerging technologies such as AI do pose a risk to jobs, it could only compound the problem further.

In an episode of the Yang Speaks podcast, Dorsey warns that AI will pose a particular threat to entry-level programming jobs. However, even seasoned programmers will have their worth devalued.

“A lot of the goals of machine learning and deep learning is to write the software itself over time so a lot of entry-level programming jobs will just not be as relevant anymore,” Dorsey told Yang.

Yang is a proponent of a UBI. Dorsey said that such free cash payments could provide a “floor” for if people lose their jobs due to automation. Such free cash wouldn’t allow for luxurious items and holidays, but would ensure that people can keep a roof over their heads and food on the table.

UBI would provide workers with “peace of mind” that they can “feed their children while they are learning how to transition into this new world,” Dorsey explains.

Critics of UBI argue that such a permanent scheme would be expensive.

The UK is finding that out to some extent currently with its coronavirus furlough scheme. Under the scheme, the state will pay 80 percent of a worker’s salary to prevent job losses during the crisis. However, it’s costing approximately £14 billion per month and is expected to be wound down in the coming months due to being unsustainable.

However, some kind of UBI system is appearing increasingly needed.

In November, the Brookings Institute published a report (PDF) which highlights the risk AI poses to jobs. 

“Workers with graduate or professional degrees will be almost four times as exposed to AI as workers with just a high school degree. Holders of bachelor’s degrees will be the most exposed by education level, more than five times as exposed to AI than workers with just a high school degree,” the paper says.

In their analysis, the Brookings Institute ranked professions by their risk from AI exposure. Computer programmers ranked third, backing Dorsey’s prediction, just behind market research analysts and sales managers.

(Image Credit: Jack Dorsey by Thierry Ehrmann under CC BY 2.0 license)

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The speech, titled Surviving the Century, kicked off the 2019/20 season of the Perimeter Institute Public Lecture Series. Rees highlighted some of the dangers facing humanity, the outlook for humans venturing to other planets, and the use of technology to become a “post-human” species.

AI will destroy some existing jobs. There is, however, a fierce industry debate around just how many jobs are at risk and whether AI will create enough new roles to replace them.

“Will this new age be like earlier disruptive technologies – the car for instance – and create as many jobs as it destroys, or will it be different this time?” questions Rees.

The other big uncertainty is whether newly-created jobs will be accessible to anyone but the most academic in society. As such, the rapid pace of AI advancements risks increasing the divide between the richest and poorest.

Established businesses can afford to reap the benefits of automation while replacing people whose livelihoods depend on them. Small businesses will struggle to afford the technologies afforded by more established players and therefore will face even more of a battle to be competitive. Poorer families will find it more difficult to ensure members of their household are equipped with the skills they need to succeed.

“The money earned by robots will clearly generate huge wealth for an elite of individuals and companies,” Rees says. “To preserve a healthy society will require a massive redistribution of that income to ensure that everyone has at least a living wage.”

A living wage has been mulled for a long time but has re-emerged alongside the debate surrounding AI’s impacts. Advocates believe a living wage offers a guaranteed basic standard of living for everyone while opponents argue that it provides little incentive to work and is economically unsustainable.

Rees clearly understands both arguments and proposes that “everyone has a living wage, but this shouldn’t be a handout. It should be achieved by creating huge numbers of upgraded public service jobs where the human element is crucial and which are now undervalued, and where demand is huge.“

The initial countries Rees sees such a guaranteed job scheme happening in are China, Scandinavia, and Canada. However, he argues that he sees it less likely to happen in countries “that fetish low tax rates” such as the UK and US.

AI will have a huge impact on our societies and it’s becoming increasingly clear it needs to be matched by radical changes to how economies work. The template proposed by Rees sounds like one of the most plausible suggestions yet.

(Image Credit: Starmus2017_Martin Rees_KD by Kai T. Dragland / NTNU under CC BY-SA 2.0 license)

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